«ВОДНЫЕ КОНФЛИКТЫ» В ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЙ АЗИИ: ВЕРОЯТНОСТЬ ЭСКАЛАЦИИ И ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ ПРЕДОТВРАЩЕНИЯ

Abstract

Numerous forecasts emphasize the danger of escalating conflicts over freshwater resources in Central Asia due to such factors, as limited availability of water resources across much of the region, rapid population growth, adverse consequences of the global warming, and contradictions between agricultural and energy needs of the region’s states. Despite the relatively abundant research on the issue of water scarcity in Central Asia, the analyses of potential causes of conflict escalation and of the range of actors of these potential conflicts do look fragmentary and not sufficiently logical. Findings of most studies seem outdated and not paying due attention to the interplay between water issues and energy security. This article is devoted to complex analysis of the role of those factors that could potentially lead to an exacerbation of water conflicts in Central Asia. The author concludes that the escalation of conflicts over Central Asian water resources is by no means inevitable and not even the most likely scenario. Countries of the region have a wide range of opportunities to prevent the exacerbation of the issue. This could involve efforts to save water, gaining access to additional water resources, and achieving interstate compromises to mitigate tensions between upstream and downstream states regarding seasonal water distribution. However, taking advantage of these opportunities is also challenging given a range of economic and political obstacles. This brings a lot of uncertainty into the future developments.

Keywords:

Central Asia, water security, water conflict, absolute water scarcity, seasonal water scarcity, energy security